Odd Voting Patterns in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly Elections
1️⃣ Lack of a Wave: There was no wave on the ground, as attested by all journalists and political commentators who travelled in Maharashtra. Even Modi's rally in Pune a few days before the elections 60% of the seats were empty despite efforts by karyakartas to fill them up.
2️⃣ Lack of Regional Diversity: Maharashtra is a large and varied state, with at least six regions. These regions have historically shown different voting patterns based on local issues. This time the voting pattern was consistent amongst regions, indicating that there was a hand that levelled things.
3️⃣ Urban vs. Rural: The BJP does well in urban areas while the Congress coalition does well in rural areas. This pattern was also fractured in this election.
4️⃣ Assembly vs. Loksabha: Votes move towards the regional parties during assembly elections compared to the Loksabha elections. This time around, the pattern went in the other direction. The Mahayuti is a BJP-led coalition, while the MVA is a local party-driven coalition. In a mere six months, a 15% swing in votes in the historically wrong direction is odd.
5️⃣ Limited Positive Factors: Freebie Schemes, primarily the Ladli Behan schemes, would have helped the Mahayuti. However, many citizens would take the doles and vote independently. Lokniti CSDS data shows that women's turnout only went up by 1% and about 4% of women more than men voted for Mayayuti. Therefore, half of 1% plus 4% accounts for a mere 2.5% swing in votes.
6️⃣ Factors Against: Several factors were against the Mayayuti:
- ongoing Maratha reservation agitation,
- exposed corruption BJP leaders, like Vinod Tawde,
- alienating Muslim voters,
- internal rivalries and leadership questions particularly around the inclusion of Ajit Pawar,
- corruption in the Shivaji statute that fell in Sindhudurg, etc.