Six months ago I made a post where I speculated MH3 card prices based on their meta relevance. Lets see how things turned out:

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/s/a0IMtff2ul

Ocelot Pride

Statement: It will go up

Outcome: Correct

This was probably the fastest prediction I made that has come true. I think less than a week later, Ocelot pride shot up to around 50 dollars, and is still over its initial price to this day.

Ugin's Labrinth

Statement: It will go down, then slowly go up

Outcome: Debatable

I'm gonna say that I was not 100% correct here, as my hard numbers were off. However the trajectory was not. Ugin's Lab did go down as predicted... but it went further than expected bottoming out about 17 rather than 25. However, as of about a month and a half ago, it is currently going up again as I predicted. I'm going to say I'm half wrong here because it went lower than expected, and went up later than expected.

Phlage

Statement: Will go down slightly, and then go up after Nadu's ban

Outcome: Mostly wrong

This one really surprised me. No one can doubt that Phlage is an amazing card and is very powerful in the meta. Despite my prediction of Energy dominating the format after Nadu's ban coming true, and Phlage even seeing a little spike in price after the ban, Phlage proceeded to drop HARD. This can be attributed to something I hadn't foreseen: Modern fcking dying because Energy was so good. Because of that fact reducing the demand for Phlage, the price went down. I'm saying I got this 99% wrong because of Phlage losing all its value, with the 1% being attributed to that spike immediately after the ban.

At the current moment, Phlage is going back up in price due to Energy still being here after Modern being revitalized with some hawt unbans.

Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student

Statement: It will go down

Outcome: Correct

I said that Tamiyo will go down to $16. And I was right on the mark for both the trajectory, and the price she landed on... until Faithless Looting was unbanned lol. Thanks to that, she is now about $40. This I couldn't foreseen because nobody could have predicted a looting unban. I'm marking this as correct because, aside from the unban shaking her up and making her OP, my prediction came true perfectly.

Ajani, Nacatl Pariah

Statement: It will go up after Nadu's ban

Outcome: Mostly wrong

Just like Phlage, Modern fcking dying proceeded to absolutely destroy the price. After Nadu was banned, there was a very short price spike, followed by it cratering. This card is pretty much a mirror for Phlage. I am labeling this as 99% wrong for the same reason as Phlage.

Ripples of Undeath

Statement: It will go up

Outcome: Correct

I got a lot of flak for this one, which makes this victory SO MUCH SWEETER. I predicted that Ripples of Undeath would go up because it is sleeper good, and you all thought I was crazy. Well guess what fuckers! Ripples of Undeath has more than DOUBLED in price from $1.5, and is now $5!

In. Your. Face. HA!

Ally fetchlands

Statement: Will go up in about 4 years

Outcome: It hasn't been 4 years yet. Wake me in 3.5 years

Devourer of Destiny & Kozilek's Command

Statement: Devourer would stay about $1. Command would either go down, or hold its price.

Outcome: Correct-ish

Devourer has been oscillating between 1 and 2 the entire time, while K Command dropped due to Modern dying. It has since recovered from that drop and is mostly holding steady.

The only thing wrong in my statement was that I thought Devourer was better than K Command, which in hindsight was pretty silly.

Ral, Monsoon Mage

Statement: Either hold its value, or go down

Outcome: Correct

Ral has slightly held its price, wildly oscillating between 4 and 8 over the course of 6 months. He is currently 6 and trending down.

The Eldrazi Titans

Statement: They will go down

Outcome Correct-ish

As expected, all the Eldrazi see very little play in Modern. I predicted they would all go down, and they did. I also said that Ulamog would be cushioned the most by Commander, as well as some fringe Modern play, Emrakul would be about $10, and Kozilek would be a bulk mythic. All of this came 99% true.

The 1% of me being wrong was me giving the incorrect numbers for Ulamog, thinking it would stay in the ballpark of $40. Ulamog is currently just under $30.

Conclusion

I'm pretty satisfied with my predictions, especially with my prediction on Ripples of Undeath. (Ha!)

We can't get all our predictions right every time, and that is a fact of our hobby here in price speculation.

The takeaway here is: Trust my trajectory predictions, don't trust my hard number predictions, and my predictions only work for Modern related cards.

Cheers!