How Did Jehovah’s Witnesses Predict 1914 Decades in Advance? Coincidence or Something More?

Jehovah's Witnesses are a cult full of misinformation, failed predictions, and a source of great psychological manipulation—we all know it. But there’s one thing that has always bothered me, and it still does to this day: the 1914 prophecy. Despite not being entirely right, it wasn’t entirely wrong either. Let me explain.

Since the 1870s and 1880s, Jehovah’s Witnesses had been predicting that within 30 years—in the specific year of 1914—the current world order would end, and Christ’s reign would begin. This wasn’t necessarily a prediction of a world war but rather the culmination of what they referred to as the "Gentile Times"—a prophetic period of 2,520 years starting from 607 BCE, which they believed was the date of Jerusalem’s destruction by the Babylonians.

Historically, it’s true that these predictions about 1914 were made decades in advance, as evidenced by numerous Watchtower articles, magazines, and books from as early as the 1860s. For example, in the Watchtower article dated July 15, 1894, they predicted—20 years in advance—that something significant would happen in 1914:

There’s an entire database of old Watchtower publications from the 1860s to the 2010s, all available for free. You can explore it yourself to find older articles and books from the 1870s predicting that 1914 would be a pivotal and decisive year in human history:

As we all know, something significant did happen in 1914—the first global war in human history broke out. They were wrong in the sense that the end of the world didn’t come that year, nor did Christ’s reign begin. However, something massive and entirely unpredictable did occur in 1914 that changed the course of human history forever. And they didn’t just predict it a few years in advance—they predicted it decades ahead of time. The prediction was partially wrong, but it wasn’t completely off.

If you ask ChatGPT whether Jehovah’s Witnesses predicted the First World War, this is the answer you’ll get:

"Yes, Jehovah's Witnesses have long been associated with predictions regarding the year 1914. The roots of this prediction trace back to the late 19th century when Charles Taze Russell, the founder of the Bible Student movement (which later became Jehovah's Witnesses), began interpreting biblical prophecy. He and his associates studied passages from the Book of Daniel and Revelation, and based on their calculations, they concluded that something significant would happen in 1914.

While Jehovah’s Witnesses did not explicitly predict a "world war," they did emphasize that 1914 would be a pivotal year in human history. When World War I broke out that year, they pointed to it as confirmation that their interpretation of prophecy was correct. After the war, their teachings evolved to say that 1914 marked the beginning of the "last days" and that Jesus had begun ruling invisibly from heaven.

Jehovah’s Witnesses didn't predict the First World War in a literal sense, but they did foresee that 1914 would be a year of great upheaval. After the war began, they interpreted it as evidence that the "end times" had started. This interpretation continues to be central to their beliefs today, as they teach that we are living in the "last days" that began in 1914."

My question is: how did they do it? Was it merely luck? They could have pointed to another random year—1913, 1920, 1908 (as they did with many other failed predictions)—but no, they specifically identified 1914 decades in advance, and it turned out to be a globally significant year.