Estimated fatality rate of suspects in the real life
For an S-rank, the game requires all suspects to be taken alive.
This got me thinking, what would it be like in reality? How many suspects would be taken alive by real SWAT?
So, i asked GPT to study SWAT’s working methods and forecast suspect fatality rates for each mission. I gave it in-game mission descriptions, missions tasks (including soft objectives) and SWAT briefings for every mission.
Here are the results:
1. Thank you, come again
Estimated fatality rate: 60-70%
Given the circumstances with stressed, drug-addicted suspects, the fatality rate is quite high. Suspects are likely to be aggressive, irrational, and under the influence, having already shown violence by killing the manager and a customer. They are unlikely to comply with commands and may put up armed resistance, especially under the influence.
2. Twisted nerves
Estimated fatality rate: 70-80%
In this scenario, a raid on a meth lab with multiple armed suspects, possibly under the influence of methamphetamine, and the presence of hostages is extremely high-risk, with a high fatality rate. The suspects present a dangerous combination of drugs, weapons, and likely gang affiliation, making them prone to erratic, aggressive behavior and non-compliance with orders. In these circumstances, a peaceful arrest of most participants is extremely unlikely.
3. Rust Belt
Estimated fatality rate: 40-50%
The cartel members guarding the tunnel will put up fierce resistance, especially if they understand that losing this key smuggling route is at stake. At the same time, given the complexity of the tunnels and the presence of many people (including undocumented immigrants and gang members), SWAT may avoid mass use of force, focusing on threats from active cartel members.
4. 23 Mb a second
Estimated fatality rate: 75-85%
In this scenario, involving an armed suspect who has committed murder and is holding hostages, along with several accomplices, the situation is extremely dangerous and typically results in a high fatality rate. The main suspect is likely in an unstable mental state, having already displayed brutality by killing his mother and is armed. Given his ties to illegal activities (mining farm and child pornography), he is likely to resist and may act aggressively. Accomplices may also try to protect him, especially if they understand the consequences of arrest.
5. Spider
Estimated fatality rate: 80-90%
In this scenario, a raid on a location involved in child pornography with armed guards prepared to resist, suggests a high level of fatality among suspects. The main suspect is a repeat offender with serious crimes, including kidnapping and assault, and is unlikely to surrender. The guards, aware of the illegal nature of the operation, will protect him, understanding the consequences of arrest, meaning a high likelihood of resistance.
6. Sinuous Trail
Estimated fatality rate: 30-40%
The guards may be armed and on edge due to recent incidents of robbery and kidnapping. Some may perceive SWAT as another threat and hesitate to surrender immediately. However, overall, the guards are unlikely to resist aggressively if they understand the situation. Fatal outcomes are moderately likely: a few guards may resist, but most will choose to surrender, understanding the circumstances.
7. Valley of Dolls
Estimated fatality rate: 70-80%
The security guards likely consist of former military or ex-police, implying professional training and readiness for hard resistance. Given the high level of organization and financial backing, they will try to protect the property and Amos Voll himself. Knowing the situation, the guards will likely be ready to fight, especially if they realize that evidence of Amos’s activities cannot be hidden.
8. Ends of the Earth
Estimated fatality rate: 15-25%
Although the brothers are likely armed and may resist, given the family circumstances, their motivation for armed confrontation may be lower, especially considering their mother’s condition and the financial difficulties that led them into criminal activity.
9. Greased Palms
Estimated fatality rate: 50-65%
The gang is likely prepared for armed resistance, especially after the incident with the detectives. They may be quite aggressive, aware that they have attracted police attention and may resist arrest. This increases the likelihood of a shootout, especially if they have training or cover on the second floor.
10. Buy Cheap, Buy Twice
Estimated fatality rate: 45-60%
Given the involvement in serious crimes such as drug and arms trafficking, suspects are likely armed and may resist arrest, especially if they understand the threat to their business. Their level of aggressiveness may be moderate, as the mafia often tries to minimize conflicts with the police, but this depends on the current environment and their motivation to protect their operations.
11. Hide and Seek
Estimated fatality rate: 65-80%
Since they are engaged in a large-scale operation involving the illegal trade of weapons, drugs and people, most suspects will be armed and ready to defend their business aggressively. Smugglers may expect to be discovered, given the scale of the operation, and are likely to resist. The large number of armed smugglers and the presence of victims increase the risk of active confrontation
12. A Lethal Obsession
Estimated fatality rate: 90-100%
The suspect, who has already killed police officers and demonstrated a willingness to attack, is highly unlikely to surrender. His skills, possession of serious weaponry, and mental issues make him especially dangerous. He is prepared to resist and may see this as his last stand. Given the stolen federal documents, he may be involved in more serious and complex matters, which also affects his willingness to fight fiercely.
13. Ides of March
Estimated fatality rate: 70-85%
The suspects are likely aware that their actions have attracted law enforcement attention and that they are cornered on the top floor of the building. Given their strong motivation and radical beliefs, they may be ready for a last stand, especially if their actions are tied to ideology and convictions. The suspects will likely fight to the end, especially if they see their activities as an act of “justice.”
14. Sins of the Father
Estimated fatality rate: 80-90%
Since the suspects have already killed several people and plan to eliminate members of the politician’s family, they are highly likely to put up active resistance. If they have gained control of the penthouse and hostages, they are unlikely to surrender, especially given the high stakes and their motivation to complete the mission.
15. Carriers of the Vine
Estimated fatality rate: 80-90%
The leader, Raskin, has experience in special services, meaning training and likely the ability to organize effective territory defense. Her group of women has shown a tendency for violence, increasing the likelihood of armed resistance. The situation involving a murdered officer and evidence of planned killings indicates the seriousness of their intentions and a low probability of surrender. The group’s aggressive stance and likely preparedness for confrontation make peaceful arrest highly unlikely.
16. Elephant
Estimated fatality rate: 90-100%
Given that the suspects have already killed multiple hostages and continue shooting, their aggressiveness and willingness to resist will be at a maximum. They are unlikely to surrender, especially if their goal is maximum damage.
- Neon Tomb
Estimated fatality rate: 95-100%
The terrorists, armed with automatic weapons and explosive devices, who have killed dozens of people, are clearly intent on causing maximum damage, so they are unlikely to surrender. Their radical motivation and intent to kill everyone increase the risk for all present, and it is likely they will only be neutralized through force.
18. Relapse
Estimated fatality rate: 95-100%
The terrorists are motivated by the goal of rescuing their leader and have a high level of readiness for self-sacrifice. Given that they have already killed many people and are disguising themselves as medical staff, their resistance is likely to be fierce. They are unlikely to surrender, as they have a specific goal and see themselves as part of an ideological mission.
19. Dorms
Estimated fatality rate: 5-10%
Most of the offenders are not criminals but rather people seeking refuge after the hurricane. While they may be aggressive or behave irrationally due to drug addiction, resistance is likely minimal. Only a small number of individuals may resist, likely in the form of minor aggression rather than armed conflict.
20. Narcos
Estimated fatality rate: 80-90%
The situation of an agent losing cover, suffering torture, and being pursued by gang members represents an extremely dangerous scenario with a high likelihood of fatal outcomes for suspects. The gang members are bent on violent revenge and are likely to be extremely aggressive, understanding that the police will arrive soon. They may not surrender, recognizing the seriousness of their crime and lack of safe escape options.
21. Lawmaker
Estimated fatality rate: 70-85%
In this scenario, considering the presence of armed eco-terrorists, potential hostages, and a high-profile target (an oil industry lobbyist), there is a high risk of fatal outcomes for the suspects, especially if they put up active resistance. Since the suspects act as an ideologically motivated group, they are likely to resist actively and may use hostages to protect their position. Their armament (SMGs and rifles) and targeted attack on a prominent figure increase the likelihood of decisive and forceful actions on their part.