Losing interest in Historic
It seems to me like there are only three top decks:
- Green (Selesnya) Devotion
- Ajani variants (such as energy, sacrifice, and Samwise)
- Auras
The three decks are significantly better than everything else, and moreover I find playing against two of them frustrating. Devotion feels too difficult to beat without some strategy that exploits their lack of interaction to go over them. I can see no possible midrange strategy that doesn't get squashed by them. Granted midrange strategies have generally been weak to ramp (c.f. Urzatron vs. Jund in Modern), but Devotion looks especially resilient to the normal things a midrange deck might try: they play lots of big creatures that trade well, several of their threats recur (Fanatic of Rhonas, Storm the Festival), and they play lots of basic lands so land hate isn't easy to use.
The other deck I dislike playing against is the Ajani deck, which have the annoying tendency to do a Cauldron Familiar impression (block, sacrifice to Goblin Bombardment, next turn Ajani makes a new token). Ajani also snowballs like crazy if not immediately answered, and is a respectable clock that ignores the combat step on its own. Comparatively Auras is OK, since removal/sweepers hinder them. It does occasionally feel like "did I draw my sideboard card? If yes I win if not I lose" against them, but that's often true against aggro decks in general.
Finally the die roll seems to matter a lot against these three decks. Beating all three of them is significantly harder on the draw. The Ajani variants are usually the least deadly in this case, but if they flip an early Ajani the opponent is often in even worse trouble than usual, as planeswalkers tend to be.
I reached about ~500 mythic before starting to lose interest and hence play less. On the way up it did seem like Historic is very diverse, albeit somewhat linear. That diversity stems from there being a lot of possible strategies, e.g. you could build around Waste Not, or Maze's End, or Emry, etc. But then you get squashed by the big three, and the whole "diverse" thing turns out to be a mirage. Historic feels kind of like Modern in that sense, right down to how Modern is also dominated by three decks right now crowding out everything else (in Modern's case, Eldrazi, Breach, and Energy). I dunno if the format adapting is a real thing, since the basic strategy of these decks are just so good; opponents are at best reliant on drawing their sideboard cards.
I'm hoping Wizards makes some changes. If we must have a "best deck" that dominates the format, I'd rather it be something like Izzet Wizards, which folds to generic hate.